Freight Market Update: What's Moving Ocean Rates from Asia and India to the US Right Now

If you're planning shipments from Asia or India into the US this quarter, this week's numbers tell a clear story: rates are climbing, September is busier than anyone expected, and the constraints keeping capacity tight are shifting rather than disappearing. Here's what the data shows and what it means for your bookings.

The Snapshot

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Source: Silq rate tracking, 14 September 2026; DOE/EIA weekly diesel data.

1. Freight Rates: New York Is Running About $3,300 Above Los Angeles

Shanghai to Los Angeles is currently quoted at $8,300+ per FEU, and Shanghai to New York at $11,600+ per FEU. Both are FAK (Freight All Kinds) levels quoted as floors - meaning they're a starting point, not a firm price. On these quoted floors, New York runs about 1.4 times Los Angeles, a gap of roughly $3,300 per FEU.

Why: The East Coast is absorbing the Panama slot cut that took effect on 15 September, live canal surcharges, and the added cost of Suez and Cape re-routings. The West Coast, meanwhile, is working through a clearing typhoon backlog.

What it means: For inland destinations, that East/West gap plus a roughly twenty-day transit difference is often enough on its own to decide routing.

2. Demand: September Is Now the Busiest Import Month of 2026

The early-peak season that was supposed to be winding down hasn't been. Global Port Tracker's forecast for September now stands at 2.31 million TEU, which would make it the busiest import month of the year. The Port of Los Angeles just closed its strongest three-month stretch on record - 2.9 million TEU from June through August - with August throughput at 955,907 TEU, 6% above the five-year August average.

Why: Three things stacked up at once - cargo held back by typhoon congestion in China, shipments rerouted around Panama's restrictions, and retailers still replenishing after pulling holiday stock forward earlier in the year.

What it means: Anyone expecting September to bring easier space or softer pricing should reconsider. Terminals, rail ramps, and drayage capacity are staying under load through the month, and any easing is arriving later than planned. Notably, the National Retail Federation's forecast for January 2027 already shows the first sign of the cycle turning - down 1% year-over-year.

3. Panama Canal: Draft Relief on One Side, Tighter Slots on the Other

Last cycle's guidance was to price a deeper draft cut into October bookings. That cut has been withdrawn - the Panama Canal Authority's planned reduction to 47.5 ft on 1 October has been postponed, so the 48.0 ft draft cap holds with no announced end date.

But the relief comes with a trade-off: daily Panamax transit slots are stepping down from 25 to 23 as of 15 September (Neopanamax slots stay flat at 9 per day), and the auction system is now pooling box ships together with car carriers and reefers in a single bidding category - deepening the queue.

Why: Gatun Lake, which feeds the canal locks, also supplies Panama's drinking water, so the Authority is rationing the number of transits rather than restricting vessel draft. Lighter post-peak trans-Pacific traffic should help ease the pressure on the lake.

What it means: October East Coast bookings no longer carry a draft penalty, so previously deferred cargo can move again. But the new auction pooling means more competition for the same slots.

Worth watching: The strongest El Niño pattern in years is reportedly under way - the same weather pattern that drew Gatun Lake down in 2023 and triggered the original restrictions. Panama is still in its rainy season with rainfall below expectation, so this current relief should be treated as a reprieve, not a resolution.

4. Capacity: Carriers Are Ordering Faster Than They're Delivering

In August, the industry took delivery of 153,000 TEU of new capacity - but ordered 187,700 TEU more on top of it, plus 24,600 TEU in options. That puts the orderbook at 38.7% of the existing fleet (13.1 million TEU on order against 33.8 million TEU currently in service).

At the same time, ocean alliances are deliberately dividing up their networks: on Asia-Europe routes, 65% of direct port pairs are now served by a single alliance only, with just 5% served by all four.

Why: Carriers are locking in newbuild capacity while rates are strong, for delivery between 2028 and 2030. Alliances are specializing their networks on purpose, so they don't end up competing head-to-head on identical routes.

What it means: Today's pricing reflects a temporary capacity window, and the ships that will eventually close that gap are already contracted years out. In the meantime, your preferred direct service often exists on only one alliance network - so switching carriers can mean an unplanned transhipment.

Worth flagging: the 65% figure comes from Asia-Europe routes - the equivalent trans-Pacific number hasn't been published yet. But the underlying principle holds either way: choosing a carrier is choosing a routing.

5. Port Congestion: A Five-Day Spread Across Origin Gateways

As of 13 September, median vessel waiting days across origin gateways range widely:

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Why: South and east China are working through the storm backlog from earlier typhoon activity. Cargo that was diverted away from Shanghai during the peak landed on the northern gateways instead, which is what pushed Qingdao's wait time up.

What it means: Five days separates the best- and worst-performing gateway serving largely the same customer base - on a roughly 29-day trans-Pacific transit, that's a sixth of the total voyage decided before the container is even loaded.

If Nhava Sheva tightens, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Visakhapatnam are open alternatives in India; in Vietnam, SP ITC, Cai Mep, and Hai Phong are clear throughout.

6. Carrier Reliability: It's Lane-Specific, Not Global

On-time performance varies sharply by lane, and notably by direction. Over the trailing 30 days:

• Shanghai → Los Angeles (lane average 54%): the top carrier hits 80% on-time; the weakest sits at 31%.
• Shanghai → New York (lane average 35%): no carrier clears 50%. The strongest performer here manages 48% and the carrier that topped the Los Angeles lane falls to the bottom of this one, at 29%.
• South-East Asia → Los Angeles (lane average 47%): the top performer manages 56%, in a relatively flat field only 13 points separate best and worst.
• ISC / South-East Asia → New York (lane average 41%): the widest spread on the network - the top carrier hits 62% while the weakest sits at just 11%, a 51-point gap.

(Worth noting: this lane's spread shifted sharply from the prior week's reading, so we're treating it as directional for now rather than final.)

What it means: Carrier quality doesn't travel across lanes. The same carrier posting an 80% on-time rate into Los Angeles and 29% into New York, from the same origin port, is the clearest example - your favorite carrier on one lane can be your worst option on another.

7. Inland and Cost Exposure: Six of Eight Destinations Sit Inland

Only Los Angeles and New York are actual ports in this network - Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Salt Lake City, Cleveland, and Dallas all require a rail or truck leg after the box is discharged.

• Rail: US intermodal volume is up 18% year-over-year for the week of 5 September; total rail traffic (carloads plus intermodal) is up 13.8%. Rail is absorbing the current surge well.
• Drayage: Spot rates are seeing double-digit increases on the East and Gulf coasts, and this leg is tightening - chassis and driver availability are both getting harder to secure.
• Diesel: The DOE/EIA weekly benchmark hit $5.967/gallon, up 36.8 cents in a single week - a direct input into fuel surcharges.
• Demurrage and detention: Claims are escalating. Samsung filed a record $186 million claim against CMA CGM; Butterfly One sought $161 million from OOCL and was awarded $45 million; Peloton sought $33.7 million from Flexport and was rejected entirely. The pattern across all three: exposure is decided by documentation at the free-time stage, not by litigation after the fact.

Key Takeaways

The rate you're quoted isn't the rate you'll pay. Before you commit, ask what's included: Cargo Ready Date, equipment type, and whether canal or fuel surcharges are itemized separately or already baked in.

Your load port can cost you more time than your carrier does. On a roughly 29-day trans-Pacific transit, the gap between a clear gateway and a congested one can eat up a sixth of the total voyage - decided before your container is even loaded. It's worth checking current wait times at your usual port before assuming it's still your fastest option.

A great carrier on one route can be your worst option on another. Reliability doesn't carry over between lanes, so it's worth checking performance on your specific route rather than going by a carrier's overall reputation.

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Sources: Data as of 14 September 2026, compiled from Silq's rate tracking and public industry sources including Port of Los Angeles, NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker, the Panama Canal Authority, DynaLiners, Sea-Intelligence, GoComet, AAR, and DOE/EIA. Some figures are drawn from secondary reporting and should be treated as indicative rather than final.